2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) identifies resource adequacy risks over the next decade in 13 of 23 assessment areas of the Bulk Power System (BPS). The observations are built on probabilistic resource adequacy metrics against defined thresholds to characterize risks, as well as more traditional analysis of reserve margins at peak demand. Rapid growth in data centers and other large loads results in a 69 percent increase over the 2024 LTRA summer forecast, with winter demand growing even more quickly.  Meanwhile, uncertainty about the amount and characteristics of new resources (primarily inverter-based and weather-dependent) raises concerns that industry will not be able to keep the pace, especially if there are supply chain delays. 

In the Texas Interconnection, risks are concentrated in summer evening hours (peaking at 9:00 pm) and winter evenings and mornings (similar to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) 2025 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves report). Deficiency is not noted in the resource margins for traditional peak demand during summer afternoons. Uncertainties and assumptions that lead to shortfall periods are described in terms of expected unserved energy (EUE) and loss of load hours (LOLH). The report notes positives in our Region since the previous LTRA, highlighting increased battery energy storage and improved state of charge management, along with demand management for large loads (per Texas Senate Bill 6), state support for additional dispatchable resources (Texas Energy Fund), and the planned 765kV transmission additions around 2030.

NERC staff will lead a webinar on the 2025 LTRA on February 19, 2026, from 2:00-3:00 pm Central and answer questions; Texas RE will also host a Talk with Texas RE on the subject on February 23 at 1:30 P.M. Central.